Book Review: How to Win a Trade War

I have been reading the Financial Times and the Economist to learn more about current affairs and enhance my career prospects. I am not an HR business partner who pushes buttons in the civil service. I know stuff and can be an asset to any organisation in trade wars with hostile states, allies and argumentative cousins.

Knowledge is power if I can use it. I read How to Win a Trade War by Soumaya Keynes, a columnist for the Financial Times and Chad Brown, a former Whitehouse senior communist to add some fancy words to my lexicon for meetings I do not attend and business networks I am not involved in.

This is not imposter syndrome but sometimes I feel I am fooling myself by trying to reach the higher echelons of government, business and society. Have I already peaked and plateaued with no strategic importance? Hell, no!

In the foreword I read, ‘In order to wage a war, you need to know the battlefield. So we start with what’s at stake – prosperity and peace – and who else is going to be part of the fight, including governments, corporations, and, well, citizens.’

Shock, Awe and Domination

The authors portraying countries as battleships reminded me of Never Say Never Again (1983), where James Bond plays the arcade-style video game called "Domination" against the villain, Maximillian Largo who tells the British spy, ‘If you let go of the controls, you forfeit the game.’ But every time you lose territory, your joystick delivers a painful electric shock.

Ouch. The shock and awe caused by trade wars should not be underestimated, but how do you convey that in a book without being too detailed or overly dramatic? Instead of a thriller or academic love-in, Keynes and Brown adopt a preppy-cool Youtubers style to explain economics and trade to clever people who read idiot’s guides. Given the right platform they could do for economics what Dr. Chris and Dr. Xand van Tulleken did for raising awareness of medicine and public health.

Maybe they saw Laura Kuenssberg’s interview with Matt Brittin, the Director General of the BBC where he spoke about the streaming and social media future for the broadcaster to reach wider audiences. Desperate times may call for grinning through gritted teeth on the One Show sofa.

They could probably perform a rap about the most exciting benefit of trade is driving efficiency and innovation to provide competition. ‘If you’re in the UK, maybe that device doesn’t have all the features available elsewhere. In the US, Apple could well deliver you a great product, but it will cost you. With access to a choice of components from abroad – and with pressure from the likes of Samsung and LG – you should get a better deal.’

Battleship Representation

America is a pirate ship: fast, opportunistic, unpredictable and raids rather than follows rules, using ad‑hoc tariffs and unilateral moves.

China is a warship: heavily armed, strategically built for long campaigns with a centralised industrial policy and a vision statement of disciplined retaliation.

The UK/EU are a merchant ship: trade‑dependent, rules‑based, prefers stable lanes. Vulnerable to disruption but efficient under predictable conditions.

If you want to know about globalisation if you stumble after saying “it’s global trade, erm”, you should read this book.

Speaking Notes

If you want to talk about USA v China, you can say: ‘They recognise that lashing out at each other would be ruinous for both. The Chinese have enough domestic problems to confront without also dealing with the Americans blowing up an advanced chip-manufacturing factory in Taiwan or denying China access to American software or its dollar network. The Americans realise that torpedoing the trade relationship further would hurt its economy while accelerating China’s military buildup. And that further economic aggression would be interpreted as an act of war.’

The UK is not a fortress economy depending on trade. The United States is one of the only countries in the world that can go solo with its big population, wide array of natural resources and ability to adapt its manufacturing power.

Trade is just a five letter word that President Trump can pronounce. I once read in the Financial Times that “America is basically an insurance company with a military attached”. Waving the flag and shouting “USA” may not feel that great if you are basically a company cheerleader.

The Europeans are described as a ‘bunch of slow, pompous bureaucrats representing member states that care too much about their narrow self-interest to see the bigger picture’. I can see the bigger picture if any recruitment headhunters are reading this.

Money Talks

It was interesting to read that in full-blown military conflicts, there is a long history of companies working on governments’ behalf. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Microsoft abandoned its neutrality to take the Ukrainian side, helping shield organisations and the government from cyber attacks. Another takeaway is public and corporate stockpiling is back in fashion.

This book is a good read but, even with the authors simplifying it, it is written for people who understand economics and geopolitics. If the authors did a crossover with Horrible Histories, their content would be more accessible. Trade and where stuff comes from is trending like the Sky News podcast Why stuff matters... | UK News | Sky News

Trade barriers can be a good idea if they are needed for national security. Make sure that your tariffs don’t just reshuffle supply chains without fixing the underlying vulnerability. Russia is hurting more than we think because of trade restrictions. The Chinese century is looming. By 2050, business leaders have become experts in gaming geopolitical tensions, playing governments off one another to screw over their rivals, minimize their taxes, and maximise their subsidies’.

Big Man, Little Man

For me, the book is about bullying, power and status. The more important you are, the more power you have and the riskier the consequences if things go bad. But things always get better for the powerful while everyone else survives in the margins and are weighed down by the consequences.

The best way to win a trade war is to learn from each other in an awkward peace. However, the Next Big Idea’s review of this book concluded the best attack is the one that exploits your rival’s chokepoints while minimising damage to yourself.

If you want to dominate global trade like James Bond, grab hold of the vibrating joystick and feel the joy of domination before it explodes in your face. Never say never again.

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